Apple (AAPL) stock went into a funk after hitting an all-time closing high in the middle of December, but it's hard to feel too bad for long-term shareholders. AAPL was still up more than 40% over the past year in early January.
Besides, it's still by far one of the best stocks of all time.
A disappointing fiscal third-quarter earnings report sparked a mid-summer selloff in Apple stock, as market participants fretted over the iPhone maker's third consecutive year-over-year drop in quarterly revenue. Apple beat Wall Street's earnings and revenue forecasts for its fiscal fourth quarter too, but overall sales declined for a fourth quarter in a row.
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Shares in Apple rallied hard into the end of 2023 along with the other Magnificent 7 stocks, but a couple of analyst downgrades to Apple stock the first week of 2024 sparked another round of weakness.
Bulls say you should buy the dip in Apple stock, which has put the company's market capitalization back below $3 trillion. And while the latest stumble is certainly no fun for anyone who came to the Apple party late, as noted above, it's tough to have much pity for truly long-time shareholders. After all, they've enjoyed pretty much incomparable returns over the past few decades.
From January 1990 through December 2020, AAPL stock created $2.67 trillion in shareholder wealth, or an annualized dollar weighted return of 23.5%, according to an analysis by Hendrik Bessembinder, a finance professor at the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.
Indeed, per Bessembinder's findings, which account for a stock's increase in market value adjusted for cash flows in and out of the business and other adjustments, Apple was the best stock in the world over those 30 years.
True, AAPL stock traded sideways for the first few years of the 21st century, but an explosion of innovation soon put an end to that. Under the visionary leadership of the late Steve Jobs, Apple essentially reinvented itself for the mobile age, launching revolutionary gadgets such as the iPod, MacBook and iPad.
But what really set Apple on its course to becoming the world's largest publicly traded company – and one of hedge funds' favorite blue chip stocks — was the 2007 debut of the iPhone.
Today, Apple isn't just a purveyor of gadgets; it sells an entire ecosystem of personal consumer electronics and related services. And it's a sticky ecosystem at that.
No less an eminence than Warren Buffett has called the iPhone maker Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) "third business," noting Apple fans' fantastic brand loyalty as one reason for being all-in on the stock. (Apple accounts for almost 39% of the value of the Berkshire Hathaway equity portfolio.)
No wonder the iconic tech firm was tapped to become one of the elite 30 Dow Jones stocks. In 2015, Apple replaced AT&T (T) in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
The bottom line on Apple stock?
(Image credit: YCharts)
Over the past 20 years Apple stock generated an annualized total return (price change plus dividends) of 37%. By comparison, the S&P 500 delivered an annualized total return of 9.6% over the same span.
What does that look like on a brokerage statement? Check out the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in Apple stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth almost $530,000. The same $1,000 invested in the would have theoretically turned into $6,186 over the same period.
For those wondering if Apple stock is a buy at current levels, Wall Street mostly thinks so. Of the 45 analysts covering AAPL surveyed by S&P Global Market Intelligence, 20 rate it at Strong Buy, seven say Buy, 14 have it at Hold, three say it's a Sell and one calls it a Strong Sell. That works out to a consensus recommendation of Buy, with mixed conviction.
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What does that look like on a brokerage statement? Check out the above chart and you'll see that if you invested $1,000 in Apple stock 20 years ago, it would today be worth almost $454,000. The same $1,000 invested in the S&P 500 would theoretically have turned into almost $7,000 over the same period.
Those gains translate to a 36.6% compound annual growth rate for Apple compared to a 7.4% CAGR for the S&P 500 in that time. That means that $10,000 in AAPL stock purchased 20 years ago would be worth about $5.08 million today, assuming reinvested dividends.
2024, the S&P 500 has posted an average annual return of 9.74%, right about in line with its long-term average. Here's how much you would have now if you invested in the S&P 500 20 years ago, based on varying starting amounts: $1,000 would grow to $2,533. $5,000 would grow to $12,665.
Ten years ago, at market close on March 28, 2014, Apple's stock was trading at $16.85 per share. This means that $100,000 invested in Apple in March 2014 would be worth more than $1 million today.
If you had invested $1,000 in Apple stock on Jan. 24, 1984, today, you would have $1,593,809. Likewise, if you had invested $1,000 in an index fund replicating Nasdaq, you would have $55,090. A similar $1,000 investment in an index fund that replicates the S&P 500 would be worth $29,230.
Microsoft's return is even more impressive than Apple's, as it turned $1,000 invested in its 1986 IPO to $4.1 million now. However, Microsoft's stock ride was rather bumpy, as its stock turned $1,000 into nearly $600,0000 by the turn of the century.
With a return of 3,830%, if you had invested $10,000 in Apple on June 29, 2007, you would now have $383,000, With dividends reinvested, that figure would improve to $469,000. That's a life-changing result from one investment, and Apple's gain since the debut of the iPhone offers a number of lessons for investors.
In other words, that $1,000 investment in 1980 would be worth more than $1.26 million today! But that's not all, because Apple has paid a dividend in several years since 1987. Assuming you never sold a single share along the way, you would've collected an additional $155,131 in dividend payments!
This means that your $1,000 10 years ago — technically, $1,002 — would have bought 60 shares of Tesla. As of Mar. 3, 2024, those 60 shares of Tesla would be worth $12,158.40. That marks a 28.342% annual rate of return.
If you had put $1,000 in Microsoft five years ago, your investment would have more than tripled in value to $3,408 as of Nov. 9. If you had invested $1,000 in Microsoft 10 years ago, it would have soared in value by more than 854% to $11,400 as of Nov.
At the end of 2023, Berkshire owned about 6% of Apple, a stake worth $174 billion at the time, or about 40% of the conglomerate's total value. That's about four times bigger than Berkshire's second-biggest public stock holding, Bank of America , and makes the company the No. 2 Apple shareholder, behind only Vanguard.
According to Apple's latest financial reports the company has $67.15 B in cash and cash equivalents. A company's cash on hand also refered as cash/cash equivalents (CCE) and Short-term investments, is the amount of accessible money a business has.
Those gains translate to a 23.2% compound annual growth rate for Amazon compared to a 6.2% CAGR for the S&P 500 in that time. As a result, $10,000 in AMZN stock purchased 20 years ago would now be worth $645,262. A $10,000 investment in the S&P over the same period, however, would amount to $33,452.
According to our calculations, a $1000 investment made in June 2014 would be worth $10,626.54, or a gain of 962.65%, as of June 6, 2024, and this return excludes dividends but includes price increases. Compare this to the S&P 500's rally of 175.92% and gold's return of 80.60% over the same time frame.
Apple, the world's largest company with a $2.81 trillion market cap, has grown at over 25% CAGR in the past decade. Based on the S&P 500's historical 11.1% ROI, Apple's stock could reach $1,093 by 2040 and $3,140 by 2050.
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